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Short Term Commodity Outlook March 2025: Aluminum and Zinc
The metal industry market is constantly in motion – and so are commodity prices. IKB Deutsche Industriebank regularly publishes a report focusing on aluminum and zinc inventories and prices. The latest developments are highlighted in the current March 2025 report.
Aluminium developments and forecasts
Global primary aluminum production increased by three percent last year to 72.9 million tons, setting another record high. China accounted for nearly 60 percent of total output. The positive trend continued in January 2025, with global output rising by 2.7 percent.
Aluminum inventories at exchanges showed mixed trends in February 2025: LME stocks declined, with end-of-month inventories totaling just over 520,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons compared to the beginning of the year. SHFE aluminum stocks fell below 200,000 tons in January but rebounded to 235,000 tons by the end of February. Comex warehouses held 15,000 tons at the end of February, about one-third of the previous year's levels. LME stocks of recycled alloy have remained stable at around 1,600 tons for an extended period.
Trend: We anticipate the primary aluminum price to fluctuate by approximately plus or minus 300 US dollars around a level of 2,600 US dollars per ton by the end of Q2 2025. The price of aluminum alloy is expected to remain around 300 US dollars per ton lower.
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Zinc developments and forecasts
In 2024, global zinc mine production declined by 2.8 percent, driven by production reductions in China, Canada, South Africa, and particularly Peru. The drop in Peru, the world's second-largest zinc producer, was 13.5 percent in 2024. China's output, accounting for 34 percent of global zinc production, fell by 1.5 percent compared to the previous year. Refined zinc production also declined, decreasing by 2.6 percent compared to 2023.
Chinese refined zinc production was similarly lower, down 3.4 percent. Zinc consumption showed a marginally positive trend, increasing by 0.1 percent. The key driver was a 26.1 percent rise in demand in Korea. In contrast, China's consumption declined by 1.9 percent.
Since February 2024, LME zinc inventories have remained above 200,000 tons. However, since December 2024, this trend has reversed, and LME zinc stocks fell below the 200,000-ton mark in January 2025 for the first time in a year. At the end of February 2025, LME zinc stocks stood at nearly 165,000 tons, more than 100,000 tons lower than at the end of February 2024. Meanwhile, SHFE inventories increased, with end-February levels nearly four times higher than at the end of January.
Trend: We expect the zinc price to move around the 2,600 US dollars per ton mark in a range of plus 500 US dollars by the end of Q2 2025.
