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11/25/2024
Future Mobility
Report
Automotive Outlook 2040: Chinese car industry on the rise, but Europe may achieve a turnaround
The automotive industry is facing fundamental change: electromobility is gaining in importance, regional markets are developing differently, and Chinese manufacturers could take on a greater role. Strategic adjustments will be crucial for competitiveness.
Global automotive markets in transition
The automotive industry is undergoing a profound transformation process characterised by electrification, automation and regional shifts in market dynamics. According to forecasts, China and the global South could together account for around 60 per cent of the global market by 2040, while Western markets are expected to stagnate or shrink slightly. Overall, annual growth in global new car sales is expected to average 1.1 per cent.Electromobility as the dominant drive
By 2040, around 70 per cent of newly registered vehicles worldwide could be purely electric. If current legislation remains in place, Europe could achieve an electric share of over 90 per cent before then. A share of 70 to 85 per cent is expected for China, while the USA and other regions may lag behind. Hydrogen and synthetic fuels are likely to play a smaller role due to technical and economic hurdles.Regional markets drifting apart
- China and the Global South: Strong growth rates, particularly in China (+1.2 per cent annually) and India (+4.2 per cent annually).
- Europe and North America: Stagnating to slightly declining sales figures, but still significant markets with large volumes.
- Chinese manufacturers: Their global market share could reach up to 34 per cent. The rise of Chinese companies is also foreseeable among suppliers.
Transformation of the value chains
Electrification and the increasing importance of connected vehicles are fundamentally changing the industry. Vehicles could be largely software-based by 2040, creating new business models and requirements. Suppliers are expected to benefit from annual sales growth of 3.4 per cent, particularly in the areas of battery technology, electronics and automation. At the same time, dependence on China for raw materials and certain technologies could increase further.
Strategic options for western manufacturers
Despite the challenges, there are opportunities for Western manufacturers. They could strengthen their competitiveness through more efficient processes, the use of standardised hardware and the use of external software platforms. If these strategies are successfully implemented, they could secure a significant share of global growth for themselves by 2040.
Summary of the key trends
- Electromobility is expected to dominate by 2040.
- Regional differences are increasing, with growth in China and the Global South and stagnation in the West.
- Chinese players could gain influence, but Western manufacturers still have opportunities with strategic adjustments.
- Value creation is shifting towards software and electric drives.
The future of the automotive industry remains uncertain, but developments offer just as many opportunities as challenges. Companies that react flexibly to changes and adapt their strategies could be successful in the long term.
